Where do the Twins go from here?
Baseball Betting Lines
03/09/2010 -
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - You could almost hear a collective groan this morning, from
Minneapolis all the way down to Fort Myers, as the news began to circulate that
Minnesota Twins closer Joe Nathan could be lost for the season because of a
torn ligament in his pitching elbow.
Outside of someone named Joe Mauer, Nathan is probably the most irreplaceable
player on the Minnesota roster. Quite frankly, you can make the argument that
Nathan is the more vital piece to the Twins' puzzle than the reigning American
League Most Valuable Player.
The bad news started for the Twins over the weekend, when Nathan experienced
tightness in his elbow after facing just one batter in an exhibition game
against the Boston Red Sox.
He then left Florida and traveled back to Minnesota for tests, which revealed
the tear. The team is going to get a second opinion, but once swelling in the
elbow subsides, Nathan, in all likelihood, will have to undergo dreaded Tommy
John surgery.
So where do the Twins go from here? With Nathan in the mix they were a heavy
favorite to once again win the AL Central. Now, not so much.
I mean, how exactly do you replace a guy who in the last five years has saved
more games than any other closer in baseball? It is impossible, you can't,
especially if you are the Twins.
There are closers out there for the taking. Cleveland's Kerry Wood and
Cincinnati's Francisco Cordero ring a bell right off the bat. The problem
there, of course, is that while the Twins could probably pull off a deal, they
are paying Nathan $11.25 million this season.
Can you really see them shelling out an additional $10+ million for the closer
position? It is not going to happen.
San Diego's Heath Bell could also probably be had. He only makes about $4
million this season, but the Twins would have to unload the farm for him.
There is an intriguing option out there for Ron Gardenhire, and he does not
have to look very far to find it. That option is lefty Francisco Liriano, who
by all accounts has looked about as good this past winter as at any time since
undergoing his own Tommy John surgery following the 2006 season.
Down in the Dominican, Liriano was throwing his fastball in the mid-90s along
with a "filthy" slider. Minnesota had high hopes for him finally living up to
that world of potential he flashed in the 2006 campaign, when he went 12-3 and
drew comparisons to Johan Santana.
Quite simply, the Twins were counting on him being their ace this season.
I had already pegged Liriano as the key to the Twins' season before I heard
the awful news on Nathan. Now, it is even more apparent that he will make or
break the Twins this season. If they decide to keep him in rotation, there is
an even bigger need for him to be an ace. And if they move him to the pen,
well, all this worrying today could be rendered moot.
Of course, I am not sure that Liriano can handle it from a physical standpoint.
It has been over three years since his own surgery, and unlike other pitchers
who have had it, he has never really been the same.
Actually, he has regressed.
If he is physically up to the task, though, he is the Twins' best option from
an in-house standpoint. But then again, if they move him, could Minnesota get
by with a rotation of Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins
and Brian Duensing?
That is not great, but it is not awful either. The Twins were a favorite to
win the division even before people knew what they were going to get from
Liriano. Not having him in the rotation may not hurt them, simply because he
was such an unknown.
Early on, it would be a struggle for Liriano to go on back-to-back nights, but
the Twins do have a former closer on their roster in right-hander Jon
Rauch, who saved 17 games for the Washington Nationals in 2008. Rauch is the
perfect guy to ease Liriano into an everyday role.
While it sounds easy enough to convert Liriano, Minnesota may not want to mess
with him any further, especially on such short notice. We are just under a
month away from the start of the season. I am not sure they can get his arm
into that kind of shape just yet. He would need a little extra conditioning in
Fort Myers.
But like I said, Rauch should be able to hold down the fort until Liriano is
ready.
I know it is more important to have a dominating ace than a closer, but
Liriano hasn't come close to being the pitcher he was before the surgery. Who
knows if he ever will be again? I say make the move now.
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NCAA Football Betting
Many fans thought it was the best side in the nation by the end of last season. This year, the polls have built on Georgia's momentum and granted it the No. 1 preseason ranking, followed by Ohio State and USC. (The Associated Press has the Buckeyes at No. 2; USA Today took the Trojans.)
"To have people believing we have one of the best teams in the nation going into this thing, it's exciting for us," Bulldogs coach Mark Richt told the AP. "I don't think anything is guaranteed, but we certainly have put ourselves in position where at least the college football world thinks we're pretty good."
Georgia Bulldogs - 9.5 wins
There's no question they're good, but the Bulldogs have one of the toughest 12-game schedules in the nation, mostly because they play in the powerhouse Southeastern Conference. Away games at No. 15 Arizona State, No. 7 LSU and No. 10 Auburn loom large, with contests between the hedges versus No. 24 Alabama and No. 18 Tennessee as well as the World's Largest Cocktail Party in Jacksonville versus No.5 Florida.
Ohio State Buckeyes - 10 wins
Like the Bulldogs, the Buckeyes also have a number of tough road contests in 2008. After two scrimmages dressed up as real games versus Youngstown State and Ohio, it's off to face USC. Other tough away games include No.13 Wisconsin in October and No. 20 Illinois in November. Granted, it should be pretty easy sledding at the Horseshoe. In fact, the only ranked team that travels to Columbus is No. 22 Penn State, in October.
USC Trojans - 10.5 wins
A similarly light schedule awaits the Trojans of Southern California, which is why the oddsmakers' total is one win more and the over is currently commanding -150 odds. Pete Carroll's troops only play three ranked teams in 2008, and all of those games are at home. After what should be an easy trip to Virginia to start things off on Aug. 30, the Trojans get two weeks to prepare for Ohio State in Los Angeles. Their two other ranked opponents, No. 21 Oregon and No. 15 Arizona State, visit in consecutive weeks to start the month of October. After that, the competition eases up. Of course, this is the same highly-touted school that lost to Stanford in 2007 and Oregon State in 2006. And don't discount the fact that USC plays its biggest rivals, Notre Dame and UCLA, back-to-back to close out the regular season. On paper, the Trojans are far superior, but motivation will be high for the Irish and Bruins, especially if their historic foes are in national-title contention.
Odds to Win the Heisman Trophy
Tim Tebow, Florida - 7/2
He won it last year, so it's no surprise he's the favorite to do it again, making him just the second player to go back-to-back. Ohio State's Archie Griffin turned the trick in 1974 and 1975, and Tebow's coach, Urban Meyer, is pretty sure his star quarterback can match the Buckeyes legend.
"There has never been anyone quite like him," Meyer told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "I am very lucky to be his coach."
Chris Wells, Ohio State - 5/1
The man they call "Beanie" was a star recruit out of high school, so it's not like nobody knew who the star tailback was before he rushed for 576 yards as a freshman in 2006 and 1,609 as a sophomore. But perhaps his finest moment came last year versus Michigan when he rumbled for 222 yards and two touchdowns in the Buckeyes' 14-3 victory over the hated Wolverines.
Knowshon Moreno, Georgia - 8/1
If the Bulldogs are to live up to expectations, they'll need a huge effort from their sophomore running back. This might be the last year of college ball for Moreno, who rushed for 1,334 yards and for 14 touchdowns as a freshman, while adding 253 receiving yards on 20 receptions, so expect big things for the man from Belford, N.J.
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NFL Football Sports Betting
Two playoff teams from 2007 take center stage on the NFL Network Sunday night in a Week 2 NFL betting match-up when the (0-1) New England Patriots betting head south to Florida for a contest with the (1-0) Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
New England HC Bill Belichick couldn’t care less about the way his team plays in the preseason. With a chance to tie last week’s game with the Baltimore Ravens betting, He elected to go for the two-point conversion and outright victory. The conversion failed, and the Pats ended up falling to the Ravens by a 16-15 final count.
New England rolled off twelve unanswered points to give it a chance at securing the victory, but it never threatened to cover the 3.5-point spread. NFL bettors saw this one coming, as they bet the Ravens down from +6 to +3.5 as the week progressed. QB Tom Brady didn’t take part in the Patriots first preseason clash, but could see action this weekend.
His three replacements all put up embarrassing numbers. They went a combined 17 for 33, and threw three interceptions and no touchdowns. The New England defense was encouraging, as they held the Ravens to 2/12 third down conversions and surrendered just ten first downs. That ‘D’ should be bolstered with the addition of former Bucs and Denver Broncos betting safety John Lynch, who could make his Patriots debut on Sunday against his former mates.
HC Jon Gruden had to be impressed with the way his Bucs played on both sides of the ball in their dominating 17-6 victory over the Miami Dolphins in Week 1’s NFL pre-season betting action. Bucs bettors were quite happy with the effort, as they made a mockery of the fact that they were underdogs in the game.
The logjam at the quarterback position didn’t get any easier to separate for Gruden, as all four of his QBs had positive experiences in the first exhibition of 2008. The four combined to complete 28 of their 40 passes for 204 yards and a touchdown, and that was without starting QB Jeff Garcia in the lineup.
RB Michael Bennett had 19 carries and four receptions, totaling 90 yards and a touchdown. Expect to see more of Bennett, Kenneth Darby, and Earnest Graham, as they all compete for playing time with Warrick Dunn in the backfield this season. Defensively, the Bucs recorded four sacks and held the Fins offense in check all day.
First round draft pick Aqib Talib was impressive in the secondary, recording a tackle and two pass defenses in his debut. Don’t be surprised to see Talib in the starting lineup opposite Ronde Barber for the Bucs in ’08.
The betting trends suggest that NFL bettors should be backing the Bucs in this intra-conference exhibition.
These two teams hooked up last year in Tampa Bay, with the Bucs winning that game 13-10. The Buccaneers have only lost one preseason game at home dating back to the beginning of the ’05 preseason. The Patriots have had a mixed bag of results in their recent exhibitions. They have gone 2-2 ATS and SU each of the last three years.
New England currently sits as modest 1-point favorites in this preseason showdown with the ‘total’ now sitting at 34.5.
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